Federal Issues Update 11/7/2014
Fueled by what many polls show to be the growing unpopularity of President Barack Obama, GOP congressional candidates from across the country cruised to victory in Tuesday’s midterm elections. As forecast by countless political pundits, Republicans gained the requisite number of seats – and then some – to assume the helm of the U.S. Senate beginning in 2015. For their part, House Republicans padded their already comfortable majority, assuring that the GOP will be in control of the legislative agenda on both sides of Capitol Hill for the first time in eight years.
This week’s Republican victories also mean that a decisively divided government will be in place for the remaining two years of President Obama’s final term in office. While some GOP lawmakers and newly elected members were quick to pledge cooperation with the president and congressional Democrats, many observers believe that legislative gridlock will prevail in the new Congress as members position themselves for the 2016 presidential election cycle.
By the Numbers
As of this writing, several individual congressional contests are still too close to call, including Louisiana’s Senate race (which will be settled in a December runoff). In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan appears to have beaten Democratic incumbent Mark Begich, while Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) appears to have won his reelection. Notwithstanding potential recounts in those states, which could alter the presumed results, Republicans will hold at least 52 seats in the Senate come January.
It should be noted that Republicans will be far short of the 60-vote supermajority that is needed in the upper chamber to advance most legislation of consequence. Except in limited cases – such as budget reconciliation (which requires a simple majority) – Senate Republicans will need Democratic cooperation for major legislative initiatives to advance.
In the House, Republicans so far have netted a gain of 13 seats, expanding their majority to at least 243 members. Some news outlets are predicting that the GOP could hold as many as 249 House seats when all undecided races have been settled.
Regardless of the outcome of the unresolved contests, Tuesday’s Republican gains will assure the GOP its largest House majority since the 1940s. If Republican candidates ultimately prevail in some of the undeclared elections, the GOP margin could reach its largest total since the 1920s.
While the Republican numerical gains are themselves historic, Utah voters also made history on Tuesday when they elected former Mayor Mia Love as the first black Republican female member of Congress (she also will be the first ever Haitian-American to serve on Capitol Hill). In addition, Republican Tim Scott became the first African American senator from South Carolina, as well as the first black candidate in the South to be elected to statewide office since Reconstruction.
In upstate New York, 30-year-old Republican Elise Stefanik won an open seat, making her the youngest woman ever elected to the House of Representatives. In yet another first, Shelley Moore Capito ® became the first woman from West Virginia to win a Senate race. All told, one-hundred women will serve in the new 114th Congress.
California Results
At least 43 members of California’s 53-member congressional delegation will be returning to Capitol Hill in January. The number of returning incumbents may increase, however, as uncounted mail and provisional ballots could reverse the presumed outcome in several close races. Based on current results, the state will send 36 Democrats and 17 Republicans to Washington in 2015 (the existing ratio is 38 Democrats and 15 Republicans).
In a major surprise to most political pundits, Central Valley Democrat Jim Costa failed to secure an election-night victory and is currently trailing challenger Johnny Tacherra ® by one percentage point. While initial results show Tacherra – a third generation dairy farmer from Fresno County – with 50.5 percent of the vote, provisional ballots could ultimately propel Costa to victory.
In one of the nation’s most highly competitive contests, Democratic Representative Ami Bera currently trails former Representative Doug Ose ® in the race for Sacramento’s 7th Congressional District. Although Ose has a roughly 3,000 vote lead over Bera, Sacramento County election officials estimate that more than 100,000 ballots remain uncounted.
For her part, incumbent Representative Julia Brownley (D) is just 0.4 percent ahead of her moderate Republican challenger, Assemblyman Jeff Gorell. Brownley, whose district includes parts of Los Angeles and Ventura County, leads Gorell by roughly 500 votes with more than 52,000 ballots yet to be counted. In San Diego, Republican challenger Carl DeMaio held a 752-vote advantage over Democratic Representative Scott Peters following Tuesday’s vote; county election officials are currently tallying 46,000 outstanding votes.
With regard to the state’s six open seats, all but one (which remains unsettled) will continue to be represented by a member of the same political party. In the race to replace retiring Representative Gary Miller ®, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) leads his Republican challenger, Paul Chabot, by approximately 1,500 votes. There are additional ballots to be counted in that contest.
In Contra Costa County, Democratic State Senator Mark DeSaulnier easily prevailed in his bid to replace long-time Representative George Miller (D). Another long-serving member of Congress, Democratic Representative Henry Waxman from Los Angeles, will be succeeded by State Senator Ted Lieu (D).
In San Bernardino County, Congresswoman Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) will be replaced by State Senator Norma Torres (D). Negrete McLeod, who announced her retirement from Congress after one term, ran against Republican Assemblyman Curt Hagman in the race for 4th District Supervisor in San Bernardino County. As of this writing, Negrete McLeod was trailing Hagman with a significant number of ballots still outstanding.
Finally, the state’s 25th and 45th Congressional Districts will continue to remain in Republican hands. In the 25th (Los Angeles/Ventura), State Senator Stephen Knight ® will take the seat of retiring Representative Buck McKeon ®; Representative John Campbell ®, who is giving up his seat in the 45th District (Orange), will be replaced by State Senator Mimi Walters ®.
Outlook
Members of the current 113th Congress are slated to return to Washington, D.C. next week for what is expected to be a relatively brief lame-duck session. Number one on the legislative priority list for lawmakers will be deciding how to handle the unfinished fiscal year 2015 budget. With the current short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) set to expire on December 11, Congress will need to either extend the CR into the New Year or pass a catch-all omnibus appropriations bill.
On a related matter, the Obama administration on Wednesday, November 5 sent a formal request to Congress for nearly $6.2 billion in emergency funding to combat the Ebola outbreak. The lion’s share of the funding would go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to respond to the crisis, as well as to the U.S. Agency for International Development and other State Department humanitarian assistance.
In addition to action on the fiscal year 2015 budget, lawmakers in both chambers will gather for organizational meetings to select new party leaders for the upcoming 114th Congress. In the Senate, current Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are expected to swap jobs as members in their caucuses will likely keep them at the helm of their respective parties.
In the lower chamber, little or no changes are expected to the GOP hierarchy. On the Democratic side of the aisle, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced on November 5 that she will run for minority leader, the post she has held since 2011.
Finally, members of the House and Senate are slated to negotiate committee size, ratios, and membership for the 114th Congress over the course of the coming weeks. The committee assignment process could continue into early 2015, particularly with a number of outstanding races not expected to be settled until later this year.