Update From Washington, D.C.
Biden-Harris Poised to Win White House; Senate Control Remains Unsettled
November 5, 2020
After perhaps the most divisive and polarizing election in modern-day history, former Vice President Joe Biden is projected to defeat Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States. While the final result could be announced as early as today, ballots are still being counted in several key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If current projections hold, Mr. Biden will garner the requisite number of electoral votes to become commander-in-chief. In addition to an Electoral College victory, Biden also will edge Trump in the popular vote.
With a Biden-Harris victory seemingly imminent, the Trump campaign has announced plans to seek a recount in Wisconsin and perhaps other states. In addition, the president’s lawyers have filed lawsuits contesting the integrity of the voting process in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. As of this writing, the prospect for the president’s litigation remains unclear, though a number of legal experts have noted that the lawsuits have little chance of changing the expected outcome of the election.
GOP Fighting to Maintain Control of Senate
At press time, Democrats had picked up two Senate seats, with former Governor John Hickenlooper defeating incumbent Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado and NASA Astronaut Mark Kelly unseating Senator Martha McSally in Arizona. With the outcome of four Senate races still outstanding, Republicans and Democrats will both control at least 48 seats each. Looking ahead, Democrats would need to win at least two of the unsettled contests to wrest control of the Senate from Republicans, who hold a 53-47 advantage in the current Congress (in the case of a 50-50 split, California Senator and presumptive Vice President Kamala Harris would hold the tie-breaking vote).
In races yet to be called, GOP Senators Dan Sullivan (AK) and Thom Tillis (NC) hold steady leads in early vote counts. Meanwhile, in Georgia, the outcome of the state’s two Senate races remain unsettled. While incumbent Senator David Perdue ® currently leads Democrat Jon Ossoff by over 100,000 votes, it’s possible that Perdue’s vote count will slip below the 50 percent threshold, which, pursuant to Georgia law, would trigger a runoff. In Georgia’s other Senate race, incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler ® – who was appointed to replace retiring Senator Johnny Isakson – is set to face off against Democrat Raphael Warnock in a January runoff.
Republicans Make Incremental Gains in the House
While most pre-election polls showed that House Democrats would pad their already comfortable majority in the House, the party fell far short of those expectations. Instead, Republicans across the country performed better than expected in knocking off a number of vulnerable Democrats. The GOP also held onto seats that Democrats had aggressively targeted as part of this year’s election cycle. As a result, House Democratic leaders will have less room to maneuver in the new Congress.
In California, at least 43 of the state’s 53-member House delegation will be returning to Capitol Hill in January. In fact, that number may increase in the coming days, as several races are still too close to call. However, based on current results, the state will send 43 Democrats and 10 Republicans to Washington in 2021.
Among the races that have yet to be called, former GOP Congressman David Valadao holds a slim lead over incumbent Democrat TJ Cox in the Central Valley. Farther south, Orange County Democrat incumbent Gil Cisneros narrowly trails Republican Young Kim in a rematch of 2018. It should be noted that Kim also led in 2018 before Cisneros claimed victory once all of the ballots were tallied. In a neighboring district, Congressman Harley Rouda (D) currently trails his Republican opponent, Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel ®, by less than 3,000 votes.
In another highly competitive contest, State Assemblymember Christy Smith has a slight edge over incumbent Republican Mike Garcia. The two also faced offed for the seat – which was left vacant by the resignation of Katie Hill – in a May special election. Another open seat, which was vacated by Congressman Duncan Hunter, is likely to be filled by a familiar name. Former GOP Congressman Darrell Issa currently leads Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar by more than four percentage points.
Outlook for the Remainder of 2020
Members of the current 116th Congress are slated to return to Washington, D.C. on November 16 for a lame-duck session. Number one on the legislative priority list for lawmakers will be completing the fiscal year 2021 budget. While the House has approved ten of the 12 annual appropriations measures, none of the bills have been considered in the Senate. In the absence of final spending decisions, the federal government has been operating under a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) that runs through December 11.
Looking ahead, Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Pelosi have signaled their intent to broker an omnibus spending package that would fully fund the federal government through next September. If congressional leaders fail to reach a bipartisan budget agreement, Congress will need to pass another stopgap measure to keep federal departments and agencies operating into the early part of 2021.
Finally, and in addition to action on the budget, Congress may use the lame duck session to resume negotiations on a COVID-19 relief bill. As of this writing, it appears as though the election results will provide congressional Republicans with increased leverage in their negotiations to push a more moderately sized stimulus package. While House Democrats have continued to call for a $2 trillion-plus relief measure, Senate Republicans have sought a bill with a price tag of $500 billion or less.