Senate Rejects Stopgap Funding Measure Again as Shutdown Drags On

Earlier today, the Senate rejected the House-passed short-term funding bill for the tenth time, underscoring the deep stalemate as the government shutdown heads into another week. In the absence of a stopgap spending deal, Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has floated advancing individual full-year appropriations bills as an alternative path to reopening the government. Democrats, however, have made clear they are unwilling to negotiate on full-year spending without first securing an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) premium tax credits, which are set to expire on November 1. 

This dynamic came to a head on Thursday, when Senate Democrats blocked the defense appropriations bill from advancing. GOP leaders are now preparing to revisit the issue next week with a vote on legislation to pay “excepted” federal employees, including active-duty military personnel, during the shutdown. That measure will require 60 votes to advance. 

In previous shutdowns, missed paychecks and service disruptions have often created political pressure that helps drive negotiations forward. This time, the administration has taken steps to ease some of those immediate effects. For example, active-duty military personnel were paid on October 15 using previously appropriated funds, and officials are working on ways to ensure that federal law enforcement officers continue to receive their paychecks as well. The administration has also tapped unspent tariff revenue to temporarily sustain the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), which provides nutrition assistance to pregnant and postpartum women, as well as infants and children, through local health departments and community agencies. These actions, combined with the House being kept on extended recess, have reduced some of the near-term pressure points that might otherwise force quicker action. 

Even as some impacts are delayed, others are beginning to surface. Federal employees received partial paychecks last Friday, covering work through September 30, and many will start missing full paychecks this week. At the same time, the Trump administration has issued reduction-in-force (RIF) notices to more than 4,100 federal employees across several departments, including: 

• Commerce Department: 315 employees 
• Education Department: 466 employees 
• Energy Department: 187 employees 
• Department of Health and Human Services: 1,100–1,200 employees 
• Department of Housing and Urban Development: 442 employees 
• Department of Homeland Security: 176 employees 
• Treasury Department: 1,446 employees 

The Environmental Protection Agency has also issued “intent to RIF” notices to roughly 20–30 employees, notifying them that they may be affected by a future reduction in force. 

However, a federal judge temporarily blocked the layoffs this week, ruling that the actions appeared politically motivated and were being carried out without adequate planning or support for affected workers. The court also issued a restraining order, finding that the cuts likely exceeded executive authority. 

While some of the immediate pressure has been reduced, other potential flashpoints are approaching. For example, federal courts will soon begin scaling back operations, and impacts on air travel are being closely monitored. Democrats continue to eye November 1 – the start of open enrollment for the ACA as a key inflection point.  

Behind the scenes, early conversations are beginning to take shape around the ACA premium tax credits. Some members of House Republican leadership have reportedly opened informal discussions with White House officials to explore possible compromises. Options under consideration include new income eligibility limits, higher minimum out-of-pocket premiums, restrictions on new enrollees, and other policy changes. 

Although no breakthrough appears imminent, the combination of legal rulings, agency disruptions, and approaching deadlines could increase pressure on lawmakers to strike a funding agreement in the coming weeks. 

November Calfresh Benefits at Risk if Shutdown Continues 
On October 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) notified state agencies that the federal government will not have sufficient funds to cover full November Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits if the government shutdown continues. In the letter, Ronald Ward, USDA’s Acting Associate Administrator for SNAP, instructed regional and state SNAP directors to delay transmitting next month’s payments to electronic benefit transfer (EBT) vendors, who distribute benefits to participants.