CSAC Bulletin Article

Model Predicts High Death Rate – Even with Generous Assumptions

April 2, 2020

The White House Coronavirus Task Force indicated last night that they are relying on a model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington to prepare for a health care surge in coronavirus cases.

The study allows viewers to view the data for the nation and each state, and attempts to predict the estimated need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. However, the modelers assume that all 50 states have issued and enforced state-at-home orders when only two-thirds have done so to date. The model also assumes these orders remain in place through July.

Even with these optimistic assumptions, the model forecasts at least 81,000 deaths in the U.S. as a result of COVID-19 by August.

Please note this this study, while being relied upon at the federal level, contradicts some local and state models currently circulating. Further, all models are simply estimates, but CSAC will continue to bring new data to counties for information purposes as this crisis continues.  

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