The White House Coronavirus Task Force indicated last night that
they are relying on a model by the
Institute for Health Metrics
and Evaluation at the University of Washington to prepare for
a health care surge in coronavirus cases.
The study allows viewers to view the data for the nation and each
state, and attempts to predict the estimated need for hospital
beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. However, the modelers assume
that all 50 states have issued and enforced state-at-home orders
when
only two-thirds have done so to date. The model also assumes
these orders remain in place through July.
Even with these optimistic assumptions, the model
forecasts at least 81,000 deaths in the U.S. as a result of
COVID-19 by August.
Please note this this study, while being relied upon at the
federal level, contradicts some local and state models currently
circulating. Further, all models are simply estimates, but CSAC
will continue to bring new data to counties for information
purposes as this crisis continues.
